Saturday, March 12, 2005

US Carriers Converging on the Middle East

The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is on the move in Atlantic Ocean and is possibly headed towards the Mediterranean Sea. The convergence of three carrier groups in the corridor of the Middle East will send very strong message to the Syrians and Iranians. There are indications that soon US is moving two more aircraft carrier battle groups to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. This will spell a formidable strike force for Iran and Syria who are in defiance on issues of Lebanon and Nuclear weapons development.

Outbound from Singapore, the USS Carl Vinson is currently crossing the Indian Ocean headed towards Middle-East. This will be the first time since February 2004 that US will have three major carrier groups stationed on and around Middle East.

Each of these carrier groups carry nearly 85 aircrafts and is capable of deliver precision-guided munitions. In addition there are anti-submarine aircrafts, airborne-early-warning and rotary-wing aircrafts. Because in the air refueling capabilities these aircrafts can operate from a long distance. The carrier groups are independent and can operate indefinitely.

U.S. military air bases in Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia and the three carrier groups will create a formidable force far superior to any military in the region.

In addition more than 100,000 battle hardened force in Iraq will be another major force in case US has to use force against Iran and Syria.

It seems American are preparing to deal with Syria and Iran in the next several months. The first priority right now is diplomacy in association with the Europeans and the rest of the world. But the leadership in Teheran and Damascus are taking notice of the power build up in the region.

Speaking of convergence, a lot of pieces seem to be in play lately. The Bush administration is allowing themselves to appear to be in bed with the EU3, even offering up some carrot in the form of a pretensious WTO invitation to get Iran to permanently halt uranium enrichment. Of course there is nothing we could ever offer the Mullahs to divert them from their religious duty to smite Zionism, and re-extend Persian dominance over the region. I think the Bush Administration realizes this, and is only holding Europe's hand long enough to drag them into the UN Security Council when it becomes obvious the Mullahs are not going to let anything stand between them and the Islamic Bomb.

When it gets to the UNSC, newly appointed UN Ambassador Bolton will be waiting on station to present the facts to the collection of corrupt cowards and appeasers in a non-diplomatic tone that will make them all look like fools if they don't act against Iranian stalling tactics. I believe all this diplomatic BS is designed to get a UN resolution that Iran will never accept ie: a demand for unfettered inspections. Once that occurs, we will handle it from there while our new European buddies can sit back and act appalled again at our resolution enforcement techniques.

Its a lot better environmentally speaking to destroy a Reactor that has never been fueled. And our good friend and partner in the war on terror Russia is preparing to send fuel rods to the Bushehr reactor in about 6 months, which Iran is trying to accelerate. But just leveling the Bushehr reactor from the air will not prevent Iran from making a bomb, and bunker busting the operating centrifuges will cause an environmental nightmare we will have to clean up eventually, and assessment of the results may not be possible from the air. That means ground troops need to do some on-site WMD inspections soon if Bush is going to fulfill his promise that our children will not live in a world subject to Iranian nuclear blackmail.

Plan B: In case Iran is successfully able to stall UN action long enough for Bushehr to be fueled, and thus safe from an environmentally conscience air attack, thats where Israel's survival instincts come into play. They are not capable of totally destroying Iran's entire Nuclear program, but they could, without our consent (cough) destroy the Bushehr reactor when they see Russian fuel rods moving south. This will cause Iran to launch a counter-attack, probably at Israel's Dimona reactor, which I am sure is ringed with Patriots and Arrows. Iran could also attack our forces in the region, or if not, we could simulate one ourselves, and justify a coordinated ground air assault that would let us eventually dismantle their WMD facilities a piece at a time, while propping up another Islamic Democracy in the region.